World Cup 2014 - How I see it happening.
Well, it’s nearly here. The greatest spectacle on Earth is only four
days away and it’s taking place in the spiritual home of football – Brazil. The
excitement is palpable: it dominates adverts, flags are hanging from every
window and plastic flags adorn millions of cars. The World Cup isn’t just for
football die-hards – as TV viewing figures show, this four-yearly football
feast is when the casual fans come out to play. For one month, we’re all
bonded.
From a footballing perspective, the World Cup guarantees iconic moments
that transcend the sport and creates immortals. Heroes and villains decided in
brief moments of passion. Who can forget Maradona’s ‘Hand of God’? Or Luis Suarez’s
goal line handball? We’ve seen Gazza cry, North Korean anthem tears, Pele’s
dummy around the goalkeeper, Gordon Banks’ save, the Magical Magyars, the
Cruyff turn, Anschluss match fixing, a dodgy Soviet linesman, Zidane’s
headbutt, a hilarious Diana Ross mis-kick, Battles of both Santiago and
Nuremberg, a Berne miracle, Ronaldo’s epileptic fit in 1998, his redemption
four years later, a Kuwaiti FA President confront a referee, Tardelli repeatedly
scream his own name in celebration and Roger Milla dance a bit.
There’s also been vuvuzelas, John Aldridge touchline rants, a mid-game
minute silence in 1974, Senegal shocking France -just like Cameroon did to
Argentina and USA did to England, the
Andres Escobar tragedy, the blatant South Korea vs Italy fix, brisk walks by
Rene Higuita, dubious arm casts, enthusiastic Zaire defending, Baggio’s penalty
miss, Harold Schumacher assaulting Battiston, Colombia’s falcon fan and Toto
Schillaci. And, of course, the time when referee Graham Poll booked a player thrice
in one match!
What about the goals? Letchkov’s header, Josimar’s belter, Borgetti’s
super-header, Nelinho’s curler, Bergkamp’s beauty vs Argentina, solo goals by
Michael Owen, Archie Gemmill and Saaed Al-Owairian, a 26-pass stunner by
Argentina, Carlos Alberto’s in the 1970 Final, Negrete’s superb scissor kick,
Sunday Oliseh driving one past Spain and Teofilo Cubillas’ outrageous free kick
with the outside of his boot. Then there’s the Lampard goal that wasn’t!
Here, I preview the 20th World Cup group-by-group, hoping to
decipher the code to see who’ll take home the trophy, currently held by Spain. Will
there be a 9th winner? We have no idea what’s in store, and that’s
why it’s all so exciting.
Favourites
Honestly, I can’t decide between the main four – Brazil, Spain, Germany
and Argentina. They all have a weakness that could spell trouble for them and
there’s no outstanding candidate. Being host nation will either be a huge
advantage or disadvantage for Brazil,
hoping to avoid the national tragedy of their 1950 Maracanazo. They’ll be
reminded of that day everywhere they go and it’s up to Scolari to keep them
mentally strong. Their Confederations Cup was a huge boost but a lack of
top-level strikers could be decisive. Reigning champions Spain are being written off from all corners, with an assumption
that their champions are too old and will suffer in the intense Brazilian heat.
But there’s a strong undercurrent of young superstars like Thiago, Koke, Diego
Costa and Azpilicueta who can cope. For a team so ingrained in tiki-taka, they
actually struggle to score.
Germany, on the other hand,
seem to struggle in defence. They have an outstanding depth to their world-class
squad but they’re ridden with injuries and an out of form Mesut Ozil. The draw
has been terrible on them, as they have to play in extreme heat for almost
every match – more so than any other team. For a European nation, that could
prove pivotal. Argentina’s attack is
hands-down the best in the world, one of the best the World Cup has ever seen.
Used to South American heat, they’ve been given a gift of a draw in terms of
opponents and stadia – finishing top of Group F ensures a route to the Final
which never puts them ‘up north’. But their defence is a problem; they struggle
at both left back and at centre back. Can a team with such a weakness go all
the way?
Group A
The opening match pits Brazil against Croatia, hoping that their Modric-Rakitic-Kovacic midfield can
supply Mandzukic freely. The Croats are weak at left back but have sensational
captain Dario Srna on the right. Mexico’s
coach relies on a mostly home-based squad, sprinkled with the likes of Javier
Hernandez, Hector Moreno and Guillermo Ochoa. In striker Oribe Peralta, they
have a late-bloomer who is in top form and hoping to fire them into a six
successive second round spot. Cameroon
aren’t as strong as their reputation suggests and they lack in attacking midfielders.
If only they could swap one of their many centre backs for a creative spark,
they’d have a chance.
1. Brazil, 2. Croatia, 3.
Mexico, 4. Cameroon
Group B
Day Two gives us a 2010 World Cup Final rematch between Spain and Holland, but don’t expect similar
heroics from the Dutch this time. Louis Van Gaal has a very inexperienced
squad, lacking genuine world class players. Watch out for Bruno Martins Indi
and Daley Blind, two youngsters with a bright future. Chile aim to be everyone’s second team, with Bielsa-disciple Jorge
Sampaoli in charge. They know they can’t defend, so make up for it with blistering
attacking and lots of goals. Arturo Vidal and Alexis Sanchez are genuinely
world-class and I can see them pipping Holland to second place. Charles
Aranguiz and Eugenio Mena are strong players too. Don’t expect anything from Australia, who are possibly the weakest
side going.
1. Spain, 2. Chile, 3. Holland,
4. Australia
Group C
The most open group of the eight, every team will believe they’ll get
to round two. It’s certainly no guarantee that Colombia will progress, who have an ageing defence and are without
star striker Falcao. Still, Teo Gutierrez and Jackson Martinez are fine replacements
to get onto James Rodriguez’s magical passes. Greece are...Greece! They play ugly, they defend and look to scrape
a goal. It might work here, with a decent spine to their team. It’s the last
chance for Ivory Coast’s ‘Golden Generation’ but a tiring
season could take its toll on Yaya Toure and Didier Drogba. Watch out for Serge
Aurier at right back. Japan are an
exciting side but are very tough to predict – capable of both the magnificent
and the farcical. A trio of attacking midfielders in Honda, Kagawa and Kiyotake
might just be enough to get them into round two.
1. Japan, 2. Colombia, 3.
Greece, 4. Ivory Coast
Group D
Costa Rica probably felt
they had a chance of progression until the groups were drawn in December. Instead,
they’re likely looking at three valiant defeats to former champions Italy, England and Uruguay. The
opening match in Manaus will be gruelling for the European duo; it might be
wise to bet on a low scoring draw. With Uruguay, it depends on their strikers Luis
Suarez and Edinson Cavani because there’s not a lot else. Godin has had a
sensational year with Atletico Madrid but there are many tired legs there.
Being used to the heat is an advantage but I don’t think it will be enough.
1. Italy, 2. England, 3.
Uruguay, 4. Costa Rica
Group E
An incredibly weak group has the French dancing in the street because,
whilst not particularly great, they’ll still be expecting to top it. Internal
fighting at World Cups is almost as synonymous with France as cheese and fine wine, but they should be able to cope
with Franck Ribery’s injury. Filled with fine wonderkids, 2018 might be their
time. Switzerland are reliable but
unspectacular and that will continue this year, led by Josip Drmic, Xherdn
Shqiri, Stephan Lichtsteiner and Gokhan Inler. In defence, Fabian Schar is a
talent. Ecuador’s main advantage is
being South American and it might well be good enough for progression, but Honduras are just hoping to better
their one point tally from last time.
1. France, 2. Switzerland, 3.
Ecuador, 4. Honduras
Group F
As mentioned earlier, Argentina
have been given a dream group and should get three convincing wins. It’s just a
matter of who’ll get the most goals – Messi, Aguero or Higuain? Carlos Queiroz’s
Iran are expected to finish bottom
but there’s a great opportunity to clinch second, because Bosnia and Nigeria make
up this group. I honestly can’t picture any of them going through but one of them
has to. Nigeria, reigning African Nations Cup champions, are a poor side and
calling up Shola Ameobi sums up their situation fairly well. Bosnia score lots
of goals but don’t defend well, despite the commanding Asmir Begovic being in
goal. I expect the tournament’s top scorer to come from this group, whether
that be an Argentine or Edin Dzeko.
1. Argentina, 2.
Bosnia-Herzegovina, 3. Nigeria, 4. Iran
Group G
Possibly the ‘Group of Death’, the USA
will feel aggrieved to be given this group. Klinsmann’s men are becoming a more
dependable World Cup side but depending on Jozy Altidore to score spells
trouble. Germany have lost Marco
Reus, Ilkay Gundogan and Mario Gomez due to injury problems, yet they still
have Muller, Gotze, Schweinsteiger, Lahm, Neuer and many more. They’re still a
serious contender. Ghana have good
individuals like Kwadwo Asamoah and Andre Ayew but are unlikely to go through,
which leaves Portugal. Filled with a
mix of solid and good players (Moutinho, Coentrao, Pepe), they’re separated
from the pack by Cristiano Ronaldo. The Ballon D’Or holder wins matches on his
own and, if fully fit, will do so here.
1. Germany, 2. Portugal, 3. USA,
4. Ghana
Group H
There’s a lot of hype over this Belgium
team – possibly too much – and their outstanding individuals. This is their
first tournament since 2002 but their lack of international experience is
balanced out by the huge matches that Kompany, Courtois and Hazard have played.
Full backs are big weakness for the Red Devils, so Marc Wilmots plays centre
backs there, which could undo them against bigger sides. Luckily for them, this
is a weak group. Fabio Capello’s Russia
are solid but won’t go far, despite the talents of Aleksandr Kokorin up front. Algeria aren’t a pushover and possess
some handy players in Yebda, Ghoulam and Feghouli. Finally, South Korea have a new generation of
promising talent, who are getting opportunities in major European leagues. I’d
expect them to get to round two.
1. Belgium, 2. South Korea, 3.
Russia, 4. Algeria
Round 2
Brazil def. Chile, Spain def. Croatia, England def. Japan, Italy def.
Colombia, France def. Bosnia, Argentina def. Switzerland, Germany def. South
Korea, Portugal def. Belgium.
No real shocks there, but I don’t foresee any South Korea/Turkey 2002, Croatia
1998 or Bulgaria 1994 exploits.
Final
Common sense points towards a Brazil vs Argentina final, despite that Argentine
defence. In that heat, playing six matches before the final might finally takes
its toll on Spain and Germany, despite their many qualities. It’s tough to definitively
pick between those four, but I’m making a boring prediction – Brazil to win the World Cup on home soil, avenging
their 1950 torture.
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by Marc Jobling
@MarcJobling
