Fantasy Premier League - Looking forward to 2014/15

(Before I begin, just wanted to give a quick introduction to Fantasy Premier League (FPL) and some stylistic choices I’ve made. When discussing a team’s home game, the opponent is capitalised (ARS) and for away games, it’s lower case (ars). Players that are classified as different positions to how they’re being played are ‘out of position’ players (OOP). The official FPL game involves picking a squad of 15 players within a £100m budget. You’re allowed one transfer per week, with players’ values subject to rise/fall. Points are given for goals, assists, clean sheets, appearances while points are lost for yellow/red cards, own goals and penalty misses. A captain is chosen every week, whose points are doubled, whilst you’re allowed two ‘wildcards’ per season – these allow unlimited transfers for that week. Tempted to join yet?)

Summer is a time for football fans to reflect, relax and recharge the batteries. In theory, it’s three stress-free months to be a good husband, friend or father, before the agony and ecstasy returns. But I’m not talking about the return of football; it’s all about the return of Fantasy Premier League (FPL). Plus, it’s not really three stress-free months when you spend the day after the World Cup Final constantly refreshing the FPL website, praying that Christmas morning has arrived and the new season’s player price list has finally been published. Some call it sad, some say dedication. In the Fantasy League world, these next few weeks are a time for optimism, hope and taking punts on some Dutch league sensation. There was a plan in place last May which has already been forgotten about because you keep double-thinking and triple-thinking your decisions. Too much thinking time is dangerous!

2014’s Christmas morning came last Wednesday, as I excitedly entered my (current) team name of ‘Nekounam & Mata’, paying homage to ‘The Lion King’. Then it was straight onto the price list, followed by a deep breath. The exciting thing about this summer is that there have been lots of new signings and, now the World Cup isn’t in the way, there’ll be a lot more activity to come. New imports to the Premier League include Cesc Fabregas, Alexis Sanchez, Remy Cabella, Diego Costa, Filipe Luis, Enner Valencia, Siem De Jong, Ander Herrera and Graziano Pelle. Midfield options, in particular, look sensational. Last year’s big hitters Yaya Toure (£11m) Eden Hazard (£10m), Steven Gerrard (£9m) and Adam Lallana (£8.5m) are joined by enticing options such as David Silva (£9m), Fabregas (£9m), Mesut Ozil (£9m), Aaron Ramsey (£9m) and a full season of action for Juan Mata (£9m). After signing for Arsenal from Barcelona, Alexis Sanchez is listed as a midfielder with a price tag of £10.5m.

Javad Nekounam, half of my team name & inventor of the Neknominate.

Strategies

FPL players adopt different strategies. Some prioritise three big-hitting strikers, some want to try out a 4-4-2 formation. Some even use the first half of the season just to raise money through clever trading, before having a luxurious squad in the finishing straight. I normally start with a cheap striking option from a promoted side, like QPR’s Charlie Austin, until top candidates become clear. With plenty of tinkering time, it’s always tempting to go for a squad that looks sensational, regardless of fixtures. However, Man City, Liverpool and Everton have tough starts to the season, whilst Stoke and Hull have generous starts. It looks nice to choose Silva, Sturridge, Sterling, Baines and Barkley, but would it be wiser to go with Nikica Jelavic, Marko Arnautovic and Robert Snodgrass? Either you side with short term fixtures, or choose a ‘short term pain, long term gain’ attitude.

The midfield dilemma

As mentioned before, there is a plethora of premium midfielders. In my opinion, Yaya Toure is too expensive and won’t be as essential as last season, whereas Sanchez - only slightly cheaper – has OOP potential and could be sensational in England. Picking Mata depends on Louis Van Gaal, whilst Ramsey, Gerrard and Lallana aren’t in my plans at all. There’s room for two, maybe three, of these and it’s between Sanchez, Hazard, Ozil, Mata and Fabregas. Another tantalising predicament comes in the mid-price £6m to £8m bracket. Christian Eriksen (£8m) ended the season in incredible form and, with Pochettino as new manager, could he be even better?

Two of Newcastle’s purchases, De Jong (£7m) and Cabella (£7.5m), have great track records and are tough to overlook. The former plays like a second striker and has scored 10+ goals in four of his last five seasons at Ajax, with one goal every 2.5 games. Last season, Cabella scored 14 times with five assists in his 36 starts for Montpellier. He’s an exciting talent, who has the potential to be world-class. To me, Gylfi Sigurdsson becomes essential when he completes his move to Swansea. I benefitted hugely from his loan spell at the Liberty Stadium in 2012 and he’s on set-pieces, making him a bargain at just £6m.

Also on set-pieces is Dusan Tadic (£7.5m). The wicked left foot of Southampton’s new signing scored 12, then 16 times for FC Twente, assisting plenty. Everton possess Ross Barkley (£7m) and Kevin Mirallas (£7.5m) in their midfield ranks, whilst Stoke have the OOP Peter Odemwingie (£6.5m) and Marko Arnautovic (£6.5m). Another player out of position is Yoan Gouffran, who scored six times for Newcastle last season and is priced modestly at £6.5m.

Defensive rotation

My strategy for goalkeepers and defenders is to pick teams that are clean sheet masters and pit their goalkeeper against the defence’s cheapest ‘guaranteed’ starter. At Chelsea, for example, Terry (£6.5m), Cahill (£6.5m) and Ivanovic (£7m) have goal scoring potential but Thibault Courtois is priced at only £6m. Assuming Petr Cech leaves, he’s Jose Mourinho’s #1 choice. With competition at full back, I have to decide whether their attacking potential is worth the extra half a million.

My other strategy is to pick defensive pairings based on how well their fixtures co-operate. This year’s star pairing is Stoke & Swansea – two teams with solid defences, where their opening eight games give us (AST, BUR, WBA, LEI, SOU, NEW, NEW, SWA). With Ben Davies going to Tottenham, Neil Taylor (£4.5m) is cheaper than Ashley Williams, Chico and Angel Rangel. As for Stoke, Geoff Cameron (£4.5m) looks appealing and started 37 of Stoke’s 38 games last season, but Phil Bardsley could be taking his first team place.

Alternative cheap rotations include Crystal Palace & West Ham (TOT, WHA, SOU, BUR, LIV, LEI, QPR, bur), Crystal Palace & QPR (HUL, WHA, SUN, BUR, STO, LEI, hul, LIV), QPR & Southampton (HUL, WBA, SUN, NEW, STO, QPR, wha, SUN) and Newcastle & Stoke (VIL, hul, CRY, LEI, HUL, NEW, sun, LEI).

Big questions

For me, only a small pool of strikers are under consideration – Sturridge, Van Persie, Rooney, Dzeko, Bony, Austin, Jelavic and Wickham. I’m still not convinced by Diego Costa, Arsenal’s midfield options are better than Giroud and Aguero has too many injuries. But there are still too many questions out there to truly commit to our starting teams. Which striker will Everton sign? What other transfers will happen? Will Bony or Assaidi move elsewhere? Will Geoff Cameron start games? Which Arsenal midfielder is best? Will Andre Schurrle (£7.5m) play more? Cech or Courtois? How will Europa League football affect Hull? Can Charlie Austin make the step up? And will Ross Barkley meet his potential?

Many questions revolve around Man United, whose opening eight fixtures are extraordinary. Louis Van Gaal played three at the back for Holland, will he do the same at Old Trafford? If so, is he signing Thomas Vermaelen (£5m), Ron Vlaar (£4.5m) or someone else? Poor Shinji Kagawa hasn’t had a chance, but maybe he’ll finally get an opportunity to shine. If the Dutchman plays with wing-backs, Luke Shaw (£6m) is a good option. Otherwise, David De Gea (£5.5m) is another underpriced goalkeeper. Finally, with a £2m price difference, do we plump for Van Persie or Wayne Rooney? All eyes and ears will be on Van Gaal’s pre-season, with each word from his mouth overanalysed.

But that is just standard for FPL fanatics like me. As we strive to compose the perfect team, all it takes is one injury or one transfer to change everything. Minds will go back and forth again and again. So, with the new season just three weeks away, what FPL team are you choosing?