The 152nd Tyne-Wear derby preview: Six in a row?

To paraphrase former England striker Gary Lineker: “Football is a simple game. 22 men chase a ball for 90 minutes and, at the end, Sunderland always win the derby.”

Yet it wasn’t always like that. Before Sunderland’s five-game winning streak began in April 2013, Newcastle had lost just once in 16 Tyne-Wear derbies. Now we’ve won one of the last eight. So what changed?

Under the management of Alan Pardew and John Carver, Newcastle suddenly entered derbies with neither passion nor a plan. It used to be Sunderland’s role to get worked up, before Newcastle would turn up, calmly play the game and take the three points. In Pardew’s role as ‘man of the people’, he said the right things and promised much, whilst delivering very little. His motivation tactics were repeatedly shown up, as the likes of Moussa Sissoko and Cheick Tiote turned in uninspired, anonymous shifts when it mattered most.

In their defence, each of Sunderland’s five wins involved an element of luck. The first 0-3 saw a perfectly legal Papiss Cisse goal disallowed with half an hour to go. Rob Elliot replaced the injured Tim Krul, just like present day. That October, an injury crisis saw the young Paul Dummett moved to centre-back, where he was duly beaten in the air by Steven Fletcher for the opening goal. A horrific Mike Williamson and Steven Taylor pairing lined up next time, with third-choice Jak Alnwick in goal for last December’s meeting.

Jermain Defoe’s wonder goal separated the sides in April, where the Magpies lined up with Daryl Janmaat in the centre of defence and Ryan Taylor and Jack Colback at full-back. Further up, Carver deployed Jonas Gutierrez in midfield, with Sammy Ameobi, Remy Cabella and Yoan Gouffran playing off a lone striker. In that scenario, only losing 1-0 was a blessing.

Are things different this time? Unlike before, Newcastle go into this derby on the back of a win, although new manager Sam Allardyce could follow the pattern of Paolo Di Canio, Gus Poyet and Dick Advocaat – lose their first game in charge, win the derby in game two. After defeat at West Brom, Allardyce has had a week to instil a typically tight, organised, set-piece-orientated mentality into his troops.

For Newcastle, four new highly-influential personnel are untainted by derby defeats – Georginio Wijnaldum, Chancel Mbemba, Aleksandar Mitrovic and manager Steve McClaren. It’s their role to stop the others from falling into their usual gutless slump. It’s their role to lead by example and emit an infectious energy. If Mitrovic continues to control his aggression and avoid the inevitable provocations, he’ll give John O’Shea and Younes Kaboul nightmares. He and Ayoze Perez have great potential as a front two – Perez is clever and energetic, complemented by the Serbian international’s sheer strength and aerial dominance.

The Magpies’ 6-2 win against Norwich was impressive but unsustainable. As well as calamitous defending that was lucky to concede just two, Newcastle scored from all six shots on target. That ratio can’t be maintained. But what the win has done is give momentum at just the right time, telling the players that they can finally end the hoodoo on Sunday.

Dangerously, it’s gave me hope as a fan. The last two Tyne-Wear derby failures have barely registered, such was the inevitability. I promised myself that, no matter what, we would lose next time and I wouldn’t get sucked into the last-minute nervous optimism. But now I foolishly think we will be energised, we will have a game plan and we will attack. I expect at least a goal this time.

However, as poor as Sunderland are, I can’t foresee a Newcastle clean sheet either. We just can’t defend. Janmaat is great going forward but, when Sissoko neglects his defensive responsibilities, our right hand side is begging to be attacked. Going for an unprecedented six-in-a-row, derby doubles have directly kept Sunderland up for the past two seasons. Yet this time, the threat of relegation to both sides is more urgent. If the Black Cats lose, they’ll be cut adrift from the rest with just three points from 10 games. Newcastle are in trouble too.

This magical game tends to exist in its own bubble, untouched by form or off-field events. Despite last weekend’s results, Sunderland are still favourites to win this fight, with a recent track record of turning up on the day. Newcastle’s recent attitudes have been disgraceful but, if they can avoid injuries and turn up actually wanting to win, this could be the streak-breaker.

It’s a huge game; I’m going for the cliché 1-1 draw. A benefit to nobody but it ends the five-game run. Mitrogol.