The derby of a lifetime - an unbearably long week for Newcastle and Sunderland fans

As if the Tyne-Wear derby needed any more riding on it, this Sunday’s is the biggest clash for a generation. The derby of a lifetime, one or the other will get relegated – possibly even both – so this one could easily be the last for a while. Expect fireworks.

It’s been an unbearably long week in the North East. Sunderland didn’t play because of Everton’s FA Cup exploits, whilst Newcastle had an encouraging but fruitless defeat at Leicester. Then all focus turned to this. Thanks to recent wins for Swansea and Bournemouth, the relegation fight has seemingly turned into a two-from-three mini-league involving Sunderland, Norwich and Newcastle. 

The Magpies sit in 19^th place, one point behind the others with nine games to go.

As much as it’s must-win for Newcastle, it might be more accurate to call the game ‘must not lose’. A draw isn’t ideal, of course, but it ends the six-in-a-row humiliation and stops Sunderland pulling four points clear. It keeps things tight and escapable. However, the three or four wins required for safety need to come at some point, time is running out.

This game is so big, it’s scary. As well as the normal derby-day hatred, there’s the prospect of relegation and the first home game of Rafa Benitez’s reign at St James’ Park. If Newcastle fans want a good omen, Sam Allardyce, Dick Advocaat, Gus Poyet and Paolo Di Canio all lost their first game as Sunderland manager, before winning the derby in game two. The most recent two even lost 1-0, as did Benitez on Monday night.

It’s about time Newcastle pulled this cheat move, where a new manager bounce leads to a derby win. And it’s still hard to believe that such a world-class manager is dirtying his hands with this situation. Everything sounds so much more encouraging under Rafa, with each quote and comment about him oozing positivity. This man knows what he’s talking about and, after so many sub-par managers in the last decade, it’s refreshing.

Within an hour of signing his contract, Benitez called the players in from a day off and conducted training. Now it’s being reported that he’s cancelled future days off and ordered double sessions: he means business and the players probably admire that. They’ll play for him.

Unlike prehistoric knuckleheads Alan Pardew and John Carver, Benitez doesn’t throw out soundbites talking about ‘passion’ and ‘who wants it more’ winning the derby. He knows that’s not true. Once the initial buzz wears off, derbies are won tactically just like any other match. Now Newcastle’s players have a game plan, there’s reason for cautious optimism.

Reports from the training ground suggest the players are transfixed by Benitez and the turnaround in attitude since Steve McClaren left has been staggering, sending positive vibes for these nine cup finals. On the pitch, Monday night showed plenty of improvements and that’s after only three days of training. Healthier defensive shape, more attacking purpose and an overall better desire to win. What have another six days done?

There are still problems, as shown on Monday. Scoring goals look akin to conquering Everest and it’ll be tough to break the Sunderland backline. That’s why I think it’s pivotal that Newcastle score early on. If they don’t, Sunderland will grow more into the game and nick a goal through the best striker on the pitch – Jermain Defoe.

The Black Cats will be without Adam Johnson, who has scored in four of the six consecutive derby successes. Inevitably, chants relating to his paedophilia will add to the electric atmosphere. Newcastle will be desperate for a good referee, after the shambolic performance of Robert Madley in October’s fixture. In fact, it’s vital that they avoid any red cards, with six red cards in the past 11 derbies having a big say on the outcome. This time it’s Andre Marriner taking charge.

Normally it’d be a positive for Sunderland to have a fortnight of preparation but it’s too early to say what Benitez’s preferred team and style will be with his new players. Defoe returned to training on Friday after calf troubles and it’s unknown whether he’ll be risked for Sunday. Lee Cattermole and Jeremain Lens missed the game at Southampton with a concussion and hernia surgery respectively but both are set to return in time. Only Emmanuel Eboue and Duncan Watmore miss out.

For Newcastle, the physio room is starting to clear out with Chancel Mbemba, Papiss Cisse and Andros Townsend staking their claims to return to the starting 11. Captain Fabricio Coloccini didn’t train on Friday but a decision will be made on him closer to the game. Paul Dummett and Cheick Tiote join Massadio Haidara and Tim Krul on the treatment table.

Tactically, it’s hard to call. Sunderland tend to play with three defensive midfielders – Jan Kirchhoff, Yann M’Vila and either Lee Cattermole or Jack Rodwell – with Wahbi Khazri and Dame N’Doye alongside Defoe. With such a defensive midfield, there’s no need for Newcastle to play Vurnon Anita. It might be worth risking a 4-4-2 formation – although outnumbered in central midfield, it encourages Andros Townsend and Moussa Sissoko to attack their defensively vulnerable full backs. Aleksandar Mitrovic desperately needs a striker alongside him, so let Ayoze Perez do so.

If Benitez starts with 4-2-3-1, maybe play Sissoko centrally so he can physically match Kirchhoff. Either way, I’d risk a Jonjo Shelvey and Georginio Wijnaldum pairing because the onus is on Newcastle to attack. Allardyce will get his team to sit back, so Newcastle need to get at them with attacking intent. At the other end, Defoe just needs one chance. Assisted by the pacy Patrick van Aanholt and the tricky Khazri, he’ll definitely get one. That’s the fear from a Newcastle view – the counter-attacking sucker punch.

Without wanting to sound pessimistic, that’s what I fear will happen. From radio interviews, the Sunderland players seem especially focused this week. They’ll have a plan to go alongside the confidence gained from the six-game streak. Allardyce is smart and he’ll have them playing at their best – at the very least, they won’t lose.

I’m predicting a spine-tingling atmosphere that settles into a 1-1 draw that nobody particularly wants, but both will accept. And many Monday hangovers.