Fantasy Premier League Bandwagons - Gameweek 4

As we roll into Gameweek 4, many Fantasy players will be hoping for a change in fortune after a freakish start to the FPL season. Big hitters like Hazard, Rooney and Ivanovic have disappointed, whilst mid-priced players have excelled – Mahrez, Gomis, Ayew and Kouyate. Liverpool, Man City and Man United have kept three clean sheets and are yet to concede. As a result, thousands of emergency cords have already been pulled via wildcard, something which I have also reluctantly had to do.

To those who had the foresight to start with such measured punts, congratulations. For the rest of us, it’s about hopping on bandwagons to stop any further damage being caused to our ranking. Getting the balance right between highly-owned players and differentials is tough, so here is my verdict on which bandwagons are worth joining.

Riyad Mahrez (Leicester City, £6.0m)

Let’s start with the season’s biggest success so far. Leicester’s Algerian playmaker has already risen 0.5m in price after scoring four goals in three games, getting the maximum three bonus points each time. A truly phenomenal start has upped his ownership to 35% - only bettered by Eden Hazard, Christian Benteke and Nathaniel Clyne.

The Foxes face Bournemouth (a), Aston Villa (h) and Stoke (a) in their next three games, showing that Mahrez has both the form and the fixtures to extend this run. With two strikers often playing ahead of him, as well as having free-kick duty, there’s also plenty of potential for assists. Make no mistake about it, Mahrez is THE player to have right now.

Get on or stay off? There’s a temptation to say that the purple patch is over and you’ve missed out, let’s just move on. But at such a low price, missing out is not worth the risk. Definitely get on this bandwagon.

Bafetimbi Gomis (Swansea City, £7.3m)

Another player who has scored in each game so far, Gomis has emerged as a great forward option when so few have delivered so far. Despite this, the Frenchman has failed to pick up any bonus points. It hasn’t put off buyers though, with his price going up 0.3m since Gameweek 1.

Swansea’s upcoming fixtures are a mixed bag, starting with Man United’s trip to the Liberty Stadium on Sunday and a trip to Watford. But the Swans were unfazed by an opening day trip to champions Chelsea and came away with a point, with Gomis supplied by some incredibly talented midfielders in Andre Ayew, Jefferson Montero, Gylfi Sigurdsson and Jonjo Shelvey.

Get on or stay off? Everyone who has scored more than once is under £8.2m, so there aren’t many other options right now. If you have Gomis, stick with him, but other options may be more fruitful. Stay off.

Callum Wilson (AFC Bournemouth, £5.5m)

A week ago, Wilson had only acquired appearance points and had been deserted by 60,000 owners. One hat-trick at West Ham later, he’s the top scoring striker in FPL and has already risen back up to £5.5m. There was a reason why so many initially put faith in the 23-year-old. His 20 league goals fired Bournemouth to an unlikely promotion, based on attacking football that yielded a whopping 98 goals.

One of the first names on Eddie Howe’s team sheet, Wilson’s confidence will be sky-high ahead of Saturday’s home match with Leicester. Following that, the kind fixtures keep piling up, facing Norwich (a), Sunderland (h), Stoke (a) and Watford (h) consecutively.

Get on or stay off? Compared to Gomis, Wilson seems a marginally better option. With a cheaper price and kinder fixtures, he’s an easy way to replace Troy Deeney or Diafra Sakho. He also has the second most penalty area touches of any player so far (behind Sanchez). Get on.

Aleksandar Kolarov (Manchester City, £5.7m)

Now owned by 15.2%, Kolarov will be expected to add to last week’s goal against Everton when Watford come to the Etihad Stadium. On paper, this fixture is an FPL goldmine and the Serbian provides a clean sheet candidate and set-piece potential.

I missed out on the left-back due to Pablo Zabaleta’s injury – Bacary Sagna costs only £5.0m and should start for the next month. Not only did that backfire, but it was announced during Friday’s press conference that Gael Clichy will be out for seven weeks with an ankle problem. With seven bonus points and an outstanding run of games for the Citizens – Watford (h), Crystal Palace (a), West Ham (h), Tottenham (a), Newcastle (h), Bournemouth (h) – Kolarov is almost essential.

Get on or stay off? Definitely get on if you can. Kolarov’s price has already risen twice but his starting spot is secure and is one of the few defenders with attacking threat.

Nathan Redmond (Norwich City, £5.6m)

Alex Neil benched the England Under-21 winger for Norwich’s opening clash with Crystal Palace, but Redmond came off the bench to bag their only goal in a 3-1 defeat. Now back in the starting line-up, the 21-year-old has produced in all games, with a goal against Sunderland and an assist against Stoke.

With so many attractive options right now, Redmond is still under radar with just 6.9% ownership, so he’s both a form player and differential option. Having said that, three of the newly-promoted side’s next four games are away from home and include trips to Liverpool and Southampton. A good spell of fixtures emerges in Gameweek 8 but, for now, it might be worth staying away.

Get on or stay off? Stay off but keep an eye on Redmond, as well as Wes Hoolahan.

GEGENPRESS GW4 PICKS:

GK:         Jack Butland (STOKE v West Brom)

DEF:       Aleksandar Kolarov (MAN CITY v Watford)

DEF:       Gabriel Paulista (Newcastle v ARSENAL)

DEF:       Joe Gomez (LIVERPOOL v West Ham)

MID:      Alexis Sanchez (Newcastle v ARSENAL)
MID:      David Silva (MAN CITY v Watford)
MID:      Riyad Mahrez (Bournemouth v LEICESTER)
MID:      Xherdan Shaqiri (STOKE v West Brom)

FOR:      Sergio Aguero (MAN CITY v Watford, captain)
FOR:      Callum Wilson (BOURNEMOUTH v Leicester)
FOR:      Olivier Giroud (Newcastle v ARSENAL)

How do you solve a problem like the England U21s?

Amongst all the nostalgia of celebrating Italia 90’s 25^th anniversary, it’s worth remembering that England’s under-21 side have either failed to qualify, or been eliminated in the group stages, of 11 from 13 European Championships. Sunday’s 1-0 win against Sweden was deemed lucky and there’s a strong chance that England will head home early again. Boasting the world’s richest, most well-known domestic league, why are England’s youngsters underachieving?

Well, the league itself is a huge part of the problem. There’s so much money at stake that clubs abandon the bedding-in process of youth products for the short-term fix of survival. With so much attention, as soon as an English youngster does show promise, he’s overhyped and overpriced accordingly, so that only the elite can afford them. These clubs have home-grown rotas to fill, so they buy them, bench them and eventually fire out damaged goods like Jack Rodwell, Scott Sinclair and Victor Moses.

Remember Shaun Wright-Phillips?

These huge fees limit other clubs to shopping abroad, who soon outnumber the English lads. Only the very best local talents find a way through this, at which point they get overhyped and once again go to Manchester City or Chelsea. Occasionally, these moves pay off but the depth of quality players is nowhere near good enough.

Look around and you’ll notice that the Portuguese U21 squad is full of top-flight and European experience – Ruben Neves, Bernardo Silva, Bruno Fernandes, Bruma, Marcos Lopes. Germany have Champions League-winning goalkeeper Marc-Andre ter Stegen alongside Max Meyer, Bernd Leno, Matthias Ginter, Robin Knoche, Emre Can and Kevin Volland. Gareth Southgate, meanwhile, has to field the likes of Nathaniel Chalobah, Will Hughes, Liam Moore, Luke Garbutt and Jesse Lingard.

Sunday’s line-up averaged just 18 Premier League appearances each, containing two players who have never played there and another who has only played once.  It may sound hypocritical to suggest they need to be on a greater stage, yet complain that big clubs buy them too soon. However, these players should be affordable for ambitious mid-table Premier League clubs who can give them a platform to excel.

Yet John Stones, James Ward-Prowse and Harry Kane are on the right track, whilst Mauricio Pochettino and Tim Sherwood often put faith in youngsters. Kane, Ryan Mason and Jack Grealish have all been loaned out to League One clubs and learnt to play the hard way. But how long is it until these get bought for an expensive bench? Stones has already been linked with Chelsea, Kane with Manchester United. For the sake of their careers, they need to remain where they are.

Elsewhere, what happens next with Saido Berahino and Dele Alli? Jose Mourinho has said positive things about Ruben Loftus-Cheek but the 52-year-old has a poor record with promoting youth. There’s also a danger that modern-day academies are perfect and privileged trainees get too spoilt, too soon. Some clubs try to manufacture fake obstacles, such as telling players to make their own way to a match. A seemingly small issue, it forces them to think differently, show determination and reveal a desire to reach the top.

So how does this cycle break? One positive move can create a domino effect. Firstly, spread all Premier League prize money equally. Everyone’s already rich, so let’s give the lower clubs more money to buy and therefore play young English talent. Secondly, enforce a rule for a mandatory number of English players in match squads. Just like Kane, Mason and Grealish, more players should be loaned out to lower league teams, rather than play in an uncompetitive U21 league.

Also, Gareth Southgate needs to be allowed to take the absolute best England U21 squad to tournaments. This summer, he is without Raheem Sterling, Luke Shaw, Ross Barkley, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and Jack Wilshere, for reasons of tiredness or being part of senior squad plans. Other nations take their strongest squad. Six starters from Germany’s victorious 2009 U21 Final went to last summer’s senior World Cup (Manuel Neuer, Benedikt Howedes, Mats Hummels, Jerome Boateng, Sami Khedira, Mesut Ozil). If it wasn’t for Khedira’s warm-up injury, all six would have started the Final.

Taking a strong squad can lead to victory and a winning mentality which filters through to the senior side. There’s few promising English youngsters right now, but Southgate should have been given free reign over them. After that, it’s time to start from scratch like the Germans did after their disastrous Euro 2000. But the Premier League is extremely detrimental to our production of youth.

Rationalisation of McClaren appointment shows that Magpies’ expectations are at rock bottom

Any day now, Newcastle United are expected to announce Steve McClaren as the new head coach, ending a five month search to replace Alan Pardew, who left for Crystal Palace. The reaction has certainly been mixed for the recently sacked Derby County boss. On the one hand, having some sort of managerial ability puts him far above both Pardew and John Carver, yet the appointment still feels underwhelming.

After all, is this the best Newcastle can come up with? McClaren was chased like Guardiola from day one, with his experience of continental hierarchies and friendship with chief scout Graham Carr. He was the number one target all along, despite talks with Remi Garde. But a jealous glance towards east London reveals that, with some ambition, even West Ham can realistically attract the likes of Marcelo Bielsa, Unai Emery, Slaven Bilic and Frank de Boer.

McClaren will do, especially if he can bring some coaches with him, but he’s an unambitious, dull, middle-of-the-road choice. He has a mixed record, with successful spells at Middlesbrough and Twente but disasters at Wolfsburg, England and Nottingham Forest. In under two years at Pride Park, the 54-year-old found time to thrash rivals Forest 5-0, as well as take the Rams to Wembley for a play-off final.

Whilst Derby collapsed in the second half of the 14/15 season, their squad surprisingly set the pace for a long time. A dramatic loss of form saw them completely miss the play-offs but it can be attributed to striker Chris Martin’s injury and the natural balancing of overachievement. Newcastle’s public pursuit didn’t help. All in all, he did quite well there.

The problem is, he has turned Newcastle down twice this year, including a desperate plea with three games remaining. Now, he’s unemployed and grateful for an opportunity. It’s a U-turn that will make it hard to get many fans onside, although it’s best for them to now get behind him – it doesn’t look good to immediately be on his back.

‘He’s better than Carver’ is the catchphrase used for all rationalising of this appointment, which proves how much fan expectations have been lowered under Mike Ashley. We’ve forgotten our potential; to him, Newcastle’s limit is mid-table but the last 20 years have shown there’s no limit.

The Magpies are the world’s 19^th richest club, with a 52,000-seater stadium in a one-club city, taking part in the money pit of Premier League football – they have all the potential in the world. However, the likes of Swansea and Southampton routinely show more aspirations and have duly overtaken Newcastle, maybe Bournemouth will soon join them. West Ham are on their way.

Is it too much to ask for an ambitious owner, a credible manager, a good squad with some depth and some intentions to win a trophy or chase the top six? Ashley still remains the problem and, until he is forced out, the club won’t rise above mid-table. The whole club needs gutting from top to bottom.

That’s why the late talk of Patrick Vieira taking charge was so exciting. Whilst unproven as a manager, he’s highly thought of in the corridors of football’s elite. Here is a cool, suave man, a well-respected World Cup winner who would immediately get the Newcastle players on-side – they clearly had no time for Carver. While it would be risky to give him his first job, it’d bring a sense of hope and enthusiasm that McClaren could never bring. The risk would be a calculated one. Unfortunately, Vieira has some self-respect, meaning he’d never agree with the club’s philosophies and desire to take transfers out of his hands.

So, by default, the Ashley regime has settled for McClaren. Yes, he’s better than all Newcastle’s recent managers and will probably do OK, provided he’s given some good players like Ashley said on TV. But this was a chance for the club to aim so much higher and they once again settled for the safe, mundane option. How you view McClaren’s appointment depends on whether you’re a half-empty or half-full person. Just remember to spell his name with two Cs!

Another opportunity wasted.

Is it really better for Newcastle United to get relegated?

After much searching, a pulse was found. It seemed that, surprisingly, there was still life in this Newcastle United. When Ayoze Perez cancelled out Victor Anichebe’s opener, pure relief filled the stands of St James’ Park, like a huge obstacle had been conquered. And in a way, it had. Eight consecutive league defeats for the self-proclaimed “greatest coach in the league” had dragged the Toon Army deep into a relegation fight. The alarming freefall was not without precedence – wins in October ended a shameful run of 17 defeats in 27 games – but it’s the manner of this incompetence that continues to worry.

Opponents smell blood in a club who are in complete disarray. Spineless defeat after spineless defeat, fan protests, an interim manager who offers to right supporters and publically slanders his players and a sequence of open letters that could put the Royal Mail out of business. Newcastle have gathered all the ingredients of a team with no desire to stay in the Premier League.

Yesterday’s results were mostly disastrous too – Leicester sustained their miraculous escape, Aston Villa’s new-found confidence yielded another win and an incredibly lucky Sunderland won at Everton, thanks to two deflected counter-attack goals. But one fortuitous result could save the Geordie faithful – Hull 0-1 Burnley. With that, Steve Bruce’s side are two points adrift of Newcastle with Spurs and Man United to play.

Sacrifice

So a win at QPR – not a given - will keep Newcastle in the Premier League for another year. It should never have come to this. But an interesting question has cropped up on Tyneside – is it actually better for Newcastle to get relegated? It sounds sacrilegious but is entirely understandable with such a soulless owner. It’s fine to be mid-table and to not win trophies, but every other club has dreams and aspirations to reach them. There’s intent. Mike Ashley has no ambitions for Newcastle and, worst of all, is publically proud of it.

What sort of existence is that? The sole aim is to stay in the Premier League, avoid the Europa League at all costs and collect millions in TV rights. New players are just future pricetags, bought as individual assets rather than to progress the club. Buy cheap, sell high. Transfer targets aren’t those who would balance the team and combat weaknesses. As a result, the ‘team’ is unbalanced, too small, too lightweight and has no leaders.

It’s all about the balance sheet, as Ashley spends only what is raised through sales whilst rivals use the eye-watering TV income. He surrounds himself with cheap, loyal staff who are grateful for employment, instead of those with ability. Because this general tight-fisted approach made him a billionaire with Sp**** Di****, he stubbornly believes it should work in football. That’s the one advantage to relegation – it’s a powerful message to Ashley that every decision he’s made has been proved wrong. His ideology backfired and he doesn’t know best, costing himself many millions.

Abyss

In theory, it’d be nice to win more often too, yet many who go down don’t come back up. If Norwich don’t win the play-offs, it means none of last season’s bottom three have bounced back. From the 10 seasons before that, only seven of the 30 made an immediate return and just eight were back within two years. 43.3% of those relegated have never returned to top flight football, including Leeds United, Sheffield United, Derby County and Middlesbrough. Basically, get promoted straight away or you could be gone for a long time. That’s the worry about Newcastle, our stay was only brief in 2009/10 but we won’t be so lucky again. There’s no Kevin Nolan or Joey Barton to rally the troops. If we get relegated, we won’t be back for a while.

There’s an assumption that Ashley will sell if we’re demoted but nothing suggests that would happen. Sure, he’s missing out on TV money and the asking price may be lowered, but the brand is less attractive to buyers. Relegation would bring the hilarity of proving Ashley wrong in his ‘unambitious, mediocre profit making’ utopia but the joke would soon be on us. This Premier League situation is grim, soul-crushing and heart-breaking but relegation won’t fix it, it’ll make things worse.

Saturday only provided a draw against West Brom but it stopped the rot. John Caver can’t be trusted to drag the team over the finish line but there’s just enough quality to gain sufficient points. Hull could very feasibly beat Tottenham – who are in awful form and have a self-destructive habit in such silly games. So we’re not safe yet, there’s still one more huge push needed to get that win.

Hope

And looking forward? The manager’s role seemed destined for Carver or Steve McClaren but the latter burnt his bridges by rejecting Ashley’s emergency plea, whilst the board surely know that Carver is a disaster. As loyal and grateful as he is, he has almost ruined everything – he’d finish the job next season. Suddenly, Newcastle could be open to other candidates, ones who may actually be a positive appointment – Paco Jemez, Paul Clement, Remi Garde etc. It’s very dangerous under Mike Ashley to say there’s hope but, if they avoid relegation, there could accidently be some.

Wake up, Palace fans! Time for some Pardew myth-busting.

Apparently dreams do come true, even in the Mike Ashley era. For on the 29th December 2014 - the new Christmas Day - it was announced that Alan Pardew had been granted permission to become manager of Crystal Palace. In my sad little world, it's probably one of the greatest days of my life - my club is finally rid of this poisonous charlatan.

I'm one of those Newcastle fans whose head is firmly screwed on regarding Pardew. Don't believe the lies of a warped London press pack, or the brainwashed supporters who have fallen for PR manipulation - Pardew is completely complicit in everything Ashley does. His damning statistics get brushed under the carpet because it doesn't fit their 'deluded Geordies' narrative. But, after reading hundreds of nonsensical comments on a Crystal Palace forum, I have a message for Eagles fans - wake up.

Amongst the delirious celebrations that will go on deep into the New Year, I thought it'd be nice to warn Palace fans of what's to come. We saw Pardew in action every week and it was soul-destroying. It's time to bust some myths that I've seen come up again and again over the past 48 hours.

WE HATE PARDEW BECAUSE HE'S COCKNEY
Like Newcastle legends Les Ferdinand, Malcolm Macdonald and Rob Lee? Like fellow cockney Chris Hughton, who was loved on Tyneside? This myth is very easy to start from a Fleet Street office but is a complete non-starter. People lap up this 'Geordie Nation' nonsense, despite our worshipping of Doncaster's own Kevin Keegan. Believe me, being cockney has nothing to do with how we feel.

HE'S DONE WELL AT NEWCASTLE
Why do people mention that 5th place finish (with a paltry goal difference of +5), yet ignore the near-relegation that followed? In the 2012-13 season, Newcastle were a Jose Bosingwa blunder away from going down with a star-studded squad containing Cabaye, Debuchy, Sissoko, Yanga-Mbiwa, Ben Arfa, Krul and Coloccini! Simply put, with the players at his disposal, Pardew constantly underachieves. As for the cups, he has been knocked out of the FA Cup by Stevenage and Brighton (twice). Great work, Alan!

HE'S BOUGHT SOME BRILLIANT PLAYERS
Yeah..... those players have nothing to do with Pardew. Newcastle's successful transfer strategy has seen them infiltrate France and Holland, whilst recently plucking Ayoze Perez from the Spanish Second Division. Continental talent without the inflated pricetags from over here. The signings of Perez, Sissoko, Cabella, Debuchy, Cisse etc. were made by Graham Carr, who are then given to Pardew to coach/alienate. He won't be bringing that system to Selhurst Park, sorry.

NEWCASTLE PLAYED ATTRACTIVE FOOTBALL UNDER PARDEW
Hahahahahaha, no chance. His football was often turgid, toothless and mind-numbingly unimaginative. His tactics and motivational skills are as good as his touchline conduct. I don't know what else to say here, NEXT!

PARDEW DID WELL UNDER ASHLEY'S RESTRAINTS
Unless you're an elite Champions League club, you're a selling club. Most clubs' transfer incomings exceed their outgoings. I'm not defending Ashley here, but that's the reality of modern football. When Pardew took the job, he knew exactly what he was getting into. He's firmly on Team Ashley.

In most press conferences, the 'yes man' either praises Ashley or practically begs clubs to buy his latest star player, cleverley wording it so it sounds otherwise. At the end of the day, Ashley didn't alienate Ben Arfa and Yanga-Mbiwa. Ashley doesn't persevere with Gouffran and Williamson, either. Ashley is a bad owner but a good manager would still have a chance to shine under his restrictions.

NEWCASTLE FANS ARE TOO DEMANDING
Where's the romance in football? There's nothing wrong with being mid-table and trophyless, but to actively crave such mediocrity is disgraceful. Ambition and glory are dirty words in the Ashley regime, with Finance Director John Irving admitting: “The cup competitions are not a priority for the club.” We see this and hate it. Is it 'too demanding' to want your club to progress? We don't demand Champions League qualification, or the Keegan days to return - just an owner and manager who say the right things about it. At least intend to do well.

So there it is - your myths completely shattered. On Tyneside, we're just partying that the Pardew era is finally over. No more excuses, no more blaming science, no more headbutting players and no more hideous stats. You can find those stats elsewhere but the club's on-pitch freefall in 2014 is astounding. We lost an unprecedented four derbies in a row with Pardew, who proceeeded to totally bottle it each time.

It's a great, great day in world history to be rid of this man. By god we've earnt it! You'll eventually see what we're talking about, Palace fans. I sort of wished the SackPardew.com campaign worked because, by walking into another job, he's not been punished for his work here. Whether Ashley looks towards a Tuchel, De Boer or Bilic, or a Bruce, Pulis or Carver, we're surely better off as a club.

The devil is off to Crystal Palace. Good riddance.

Derby week - can I bring myself to cheer on Pardew?

We’re one week away from the Tyne-Wear derby, which is unusually close to Christmas this year. Under normal circumstances, the outcome of next Sunday will determine whether I have a jubilant or distraught turkey dinner. And yet, because of Alan Pardew, I find myself not 100% wanting my beloved Newcastle to win. What sort of fan has such doubts on derby week? One who now feels nothing when they score or concede, one who is insanely jealous of those who can still feel emotions, one who hates the manager so much that it’s took the club he loves away from him.

With Pardew, it’s went from professional hatred to personal and I know that’s not healthy. The way he has somehow made his doubters look foolish – and it’s almost unexplainable how he’s done it – leaves a sour feeling. Some in the press even think fans should apologise! As a backer of SackPardew.com, I can wholeheartedly say that we were right to do this campaign. Of course we were. The club was in an almost year-long freefall, heading towards relegation with a manager who had gone off the boil both tactically and with his behaviour. Each interview would be full of excuses, often blaming science or the Cabaye sale. There’s a lot of evidence to say that our campaign inspired the turnaround because, for some reason, our players seem to like him and want to play for him.

We acted in the club’s best interests because we care too much about the club, but now I can’t tell if I’ve become the opposite. Disillusioned, disconnected and disgusted, I feel locked out of Newcastle United - shunned away. I hate Sunderland and winning the derby has become the ultimate (because we’ve been trained not to think of evil trophies), yet I can’t cheer Pardew on, not even against them. Then there’s Coloccini, the mute captain who ran away back to Argentina amidst a relegation fight, when we needed him the most. It’s hard to support that.

Maybe it’s because our increasingly idiotic fan base will lap it up and start to call him our King again, or maybe it’s because he’ll have an even bigger ego (if that’s possible). I’m just horrified by a large number of our fans. Growing up, I used to be so proud of how smart we were, how we always stood as one and wouldn’t tolerate bullshit. Yet the club churns out PR nonsense, foiling any desire for ambition, and are still defended on Facebook comments and phone-ins. How can they fall for this?

Then it hit me – am I one of the bad guys here? These lads and lasses work hard during the week and just want to cheer their team on at the weekend. They don’t want others to tell them how to think or tell them to hold up leaflets. We were pretty certain we were right about Ben Arfa – one of the greatest players I’ve seen in black and white – yet he can’t even get games at Hull. These fans know that Ashley will do what he wants, regardless of their opinions and moaning, so why stress so much about it? ‘Support the team, not the regime’.

Pardew’s not going anywhere soon – he’s staying regardless - so maybe I should just swallow my pride and give unequivocal support for one day against the Mackems. And yet…. I just can’t do it. I keep say “we” and “our”, so a love is still there somewhere. The task for me this week is to recapture that partisan feeling of wanting to beat the Mackems, or at least not get humiliated 0-3 again. Because if I can’t, I’m starting to worry about myself.

Goals, goals, goals!

I've recently started a job at Coral bookmakers - betting, not novel production - and had my horizons broadened when it comes to different bet types. I normally stick to accumulators, over/under 2.5 goals and the annual each-way bet for the Grand National. But, after chatting to colleagues, attempting some Lucky 31s or Yankees could prove beneficial. It gives a safety net when one team ruins accumulators. So it got me thinking: 2-1 is probably the most common football score, with odds roughly between 7-1 and 11-1, depending on the teams. Would betting a Lucky 31 (five singles, 10 doubles, 10 trebles, five 4-folds and a 5-fold) on four games to finish 2-1 make me rich?

Lucky 31 is normally better for horse racing because football tends to have shorter odds, but specific scorelines counter this problem. Of course, 2-1 is a better bet for close, hard to call games, rather than Chelsea vs Burnley or Man City vs Bury. But is 2-1 the most common score? I undertook some very basic research to test this hypothesis, looking at all scores from five major 2014-15 leagues (so far).




Several observations can be made from this. Overall, the most common score is actually 1-0, followed by 2-1 and 2-0. It is most common overall, as well as for each individual league. Wins have claimed the top three places, whilst the Premier League has the highest goals per game ratio. On top of this, England's top flight has had fewer anomalies so far - only six games have had six or more goal - highlights being Everton 3-6 Chelsea and Southampton 8-0 Sunderland. This means that the average game has more goals than in other nations.

(However, this doesn't necessarily mean the 'Greatest League in the World' is actually that - more goals doesn't lead to a higher quality, especially in defence. Whilst marketed the best, with more money than the rest, Premier League defences are getting leakier and continues to lose its star players to Spanish football.)

The Championship has the lowest goals to games ratio, with 1-1 as the second most frequent score. Most years, the league would have a clear leader by now but it is very congested this time - seven points separate the top 11. This spread of quality is reflected in results, with many tight games.

1-1 is a strange scoreline - very common in two league and rare in two others (Championship and Serie A, with the lowest goalscoring rates). 2-2 is least common in almost all five league, yet is a narrow third for the Premier League - further proof that English goals are flying in this year.

Honestly, most of these observations don't reveal much. They're either uninteresting, inconclusive or already known. Further research could involve graphs and finding the interquartile range of this season's scores - some genuine analysis of games, as opposed to this quick test. But what I do know is that my Lucky 31 bets will focus on harder to call games, all with a 1-0 prediction. I'll let you know how successful (or, most likely for me, unsuccessful) they are.

Next weekend?
Newcastle 1-0 QPR (6/1), Everton 1-0 West Ham (7/1), Watford 0-1 Derby (9/1), Elche 1-0 Cordoba (5/1), Parma 1-0 Empoli (13/2). Of course, they won't all win - although £3.10 potentially returns £4,712 - but two of those 1-0s will return a small profit, which is good enough for me!

Today

When you’ve supported your local team for over 20 years, it’s heartbreaking to be firmly in the ‘I hope we lose’ camp every week. It takes a special man (or men) to inspire such a betrayal, even if you know that the defeat is in the best interests of your team. Today, Newcastle are at home to newly promoted Leicester. Whilst wanting the Magpies to lose has, unfortunately, gone on for several months, today brings a new dilemma. Already in such a perilous league position, do we really want to lose this match?

The answer lies within a sub-question: if Leicester win, do we truly believe that Alan Pardew will be sacked? Personally, I don’t. I’m not being fooled again, after the Stoke defeat – that should’ve been the night. If today’s result doesn’t affect Pardew’s status, then we may as well cheer Newcastle to victory. Because anything but defeat pretty much consigns us to relegation. There’s no point in sacking Pardew if we’re going down anyway, the new manager needs a chance of survival.

Our upcoming fixtures are more devilish than Pardew himself but I fear that Ashley won’t pull the trigger until after December when it’s too late and the Leicester game is completely forgotten. If it has no impact, we may as well win and give ourselves a fighting chance. And yet, despite that, I still can’t bring myself to cheer him on, knowing how smug and self-congratulatory he’ll be post-match. The club’s new PR guru Keith Bishop will spin it into some heart-wrenching tale that our moronic fans will lap up.

It really hurts to be like this – I love this football club so much. I’m very much in the ‘short term pain, long term gain’ camp but so many fans have their heads firmly stuck in the sand. Look at the facts: one win from 15 games, the fewest PL goals scored in 2014, the most conceded and a staggering 36% of Pardew’s defeats have been by three or more goals. When we lose, we absolutely collapse. It’s now almost a weekly occurrence.

It’s took many years of gradual disillusionment and culminated with Pardew’s lies, excuses, abysmal form and terrible man management. His treatment of Hatem Ben Arfa and Mapou Yanga-Mbiwa was disgraceful. The only players defending him to the media are those who’d get nowhere the team under another manager. Pardew is only in a job because Ashley puts his egotistic and stubborn nature over money – he’s rich, another few million doesn’t matter!

If it wasn’t for widespread reports that he was about to be sacked, it might’ve already happened. If the Independent journalist didn’t reveal their drunken conversation pre-Stoke, it might’ve already happened. It could even be said that – as great and inspirational as the website is – the SackPardew.com protests might have had the opposite effect to what was intended. This attitude will cost him tens of millions next May but that’s ok because he wound up the Geordies. We’ll be the ones that suffer, yet again.

So how do I think today will go? Protests will be minimal, the atmosphere will be poor (as is often the case these days) and many older fans will simply shrug their shoulders at a limp, toothless draw or defeat before continuing with their Saturday pub crawl. Gabriel Obertan will start, with Remy Cabella on the bench. I would typically see this as a fluke 1-0 Cisse-accidently-bums-it-in bore, but I truly think Pardew has run out of luck. Leicester will get a draw at St James’ Park but Pardew will cling on to his job – so maybe a bit of luck! Newcastle will then be locked in a relegation dogfight which they should never have been in. Cheers for that, Pardew. It’s all your fault.

My search for the perfect formation

Is there one?

For years, I’ve prided myself on having a comprehensive knowledge of football but tactical awareness has always been my blind spot. However, upon recently reading Jonathan Wilson’s excellent ‘Inverting the Pyramid’, I have become fascinated by the cyclical evolution of tactics. Trends go in and out of fashion, such as wingers, playmakers, strike partnerships, sweepers and false nines. Louis Van Gaal’s arrival at Old Trafford has brought back the debate of deploying three centre backs, after it worked so successfully for his Dutch World Cup side. Clearly I’m nowhere near Wilson’s level of expertise, but the main lesson I learnt is that each system has a weakness – there is no flawless formation. Yet I’m so enraptured by the idea of one that I want to find the most perfect – or as close to perfect – formation possible.

It was the great Ukrainian Valeriy Lobanovskyi who adapted a mathematical mindset to his tactics board. Football to him was, according to Wilson, merely: “a system of 22 elements – two sub-systems of 11 elements – moving within a defined area and subject to a series of restrictions.” His philosophy was that: “If the two sub-systems were equal, the outcome would be a draw. If one were stronger, they would win.” Whilst a match is prone to other factors – quality of opposition, strength of bench, a team’s desire and, simply, luck – a well-drilled system can see any David beat their Goliath.

A manager needs to decide whether he should fit a system to his players, or fit players to his system. All sorts of tactics can work. We’ve seen beautiful ideas like tiki taka conquer the world and totaalvoetbal almost did the same, yet Graham Taylor (Watford), Dave Bassett (Wimbledon), Egil Olsen (Norway) and Tony Pulis (Stoke) have proved that other, non-pretty strategies can also achieve startling success. Alf Ramsey’s victorious ‘Wingless Wonders’ put 4-4-2 at the forefront of British tactics for decades and it’s only the last 10 years that have seen other systems stamp their dominance, rendering 4-4-2 almost extinct at the top level.

That’s a good place to begin. A traditional 4-4-2 relies on partnerships – the two centre backs, the two central midfielders, the right wing, left wing and a strike force. The latter is normally a big man-little man combination, combining height and power with pace and finishing. It gives good width but the combination of one holding midfielder and one forward-thinker often gets outnumbered against today’s midfields. Whilst it can be good to defend in flat rows, a 4-4-2 only has three bands, which gives trequartista playmakers lots of space to cause trouble. If the gap between defence and midfield is kept small, the formation works – which Diego Simeone has introduced at Atletico – but attacks can be predictable.

England, inspired by Liverpool, used a 4-4-2 diamond against Switzerland two weeks ago and it worked very well, despite fears that Lichtsteiner and Rodriguez would exploit the severe lack of width. This system has a strong spine as it packs the middle of the pitch but it can be too narrow, often leaving the full backs with a two-on-one disadvantage. The general rule for defending is that there should be one more defender than opposing attackers – unlike the flat 4-4-2; the diamond lets the defensive midfielder pick up one of them, so there are no two-on-two situations.

The global formation of choice since Spain’s Euro 2008 win, 4-2-3-1, has seemingly taken 4-4-2s crown. Juanma Lillo is often credited with introducing it to modern football but the Spaniard claims that he was only labelling what had already been happening for years. You see, flat 4-4-2s contain one slightly withdrawn striker and lots of wing play – a bit of tweaking and this visually becomes 4-2-3-1. It’s a very strong system and has had variations where the ‘trequartista’ is actually positioned to negate the threat of registas like Pirlo, Alonso and Gundogan. The double pivot stifles opposition playmakers but is generally too defensive, whilst playing with one striker can bring up isolation issues. Only special all-rounder forwards like Drogba tend to play well alone.

Whether 4-2-3-1 uses wingers or inside forwards, tracking back is essential because, with plenty of space ahead of the full backs, opposing wingers will have a field day – Holland’s Arjen Robben used Robinho’s laziness to overturn Brazil’s 1-0 lead at the 2010 World Cup. The best way to defeat this, apart from using your own 4-2-3-1, is a staggered 4-3-3. Here, the trequartista can be moved back into a midfield three, giving a stronger midfield base. At Ancelotti’s Real Madrid, their 4-3-3 can be devastating on the counter attack, unleashing Ronaldo and Bale either side of Karim Benzema. Ronaldo and Bale’s tireless energy is ideal for pressing high up the pitch, causing defenders to panic and eventually make a mistake. They could be pinned back by attacking full backs but their stamina and high work rate are perfect for these roles, managing to track back yet attack with such destruction. The key to Real’s 4-3-3 is the wingers/inside forwards – for fitness reasons, it won’t work well at most clubs. There just aren’t enough players in the attacking third.

A position that captivates me is wing-back. Rarely seen these days because of its three-man defence, in theory it is wonderful – the best of both worlds. It’s very hard to achieve in practice though, requiring extraordinary fitness, discipline and decision making. The 5-3-2 (or 3-5-2) is ideal against two strikers, outnumbers the midfield and provides two strikers. But width is a huge weakness, as the onus is solely on the wing-backs to both defend and burst forward in attack to provide crosses. Opposition full-backs are free to roam and exploit weaknesses. With two lung-busting players it could work but, if the playmaker is closed off, it's still too predictable. 

My favourite formation, seldom used but one that’s theoretically close to perfect, is Roberto Martinez’s 3-4-3 at Wigan Athletic. After 28 games, his side were bottom of the Premier League with just 16 points. After unleashing his brainchild against Bolton, Wigan got an incredible 27 points from their final 14 games and escaped relegation – a true ‘great escape’. The 3-4-3 beat Arsenal, Manchester United and Liverpool, whilst destroying a Champions League-chasing Newcastle 4-0.

Also used at Napoli with a Hamsik-Cavani-Lavezzi triumvirate, Martinez’s piece of genius was using both wing-backs and wingers – sacrificing a striker to avoid the width problem of a 5-3-2. In possession of Jean Beausejour – a naturally energetic wing-back from his time with Bielsa’s Chile – Martinez deployed him on the left and Emmerson Boyce on the right, with a back three of Caldwell, Alcaraz and Figueroa. Victor Moses and Jordi Gomez played wide off Franco Di Santo – a formation that was 5-4-1 in defence and a free-flowing 3-4-3 in attack. Wigan could double up on the wings, stretching the field of play without worrying about giving defensive protection.

There’s only one centre forward in name but swapping the wingers provides inside forwards and this, combined with the attacking threat of Beausejour, confused many teams. The final issue with this formation is the centre backs. They’re able to cope against two forwards, as the middle centre back covers in his role as sweeper. Against only one forward, he operates as libero and helps the midfield cope with (probably) three opposing midfielders. Martinez’s flexible 3-4-3 has lots of width, is comfortable in defence and can offer extra midfield support. Am I missing a really obvious reason why this isn’t used more? Is it the difficulty of finding true wing-backs?

Of course, an ideal squad would include the right players for controlling a match, the players for pacy, powerful counter attacks and individuals able to unlock defences when teams sit deep and the onus is on them to make a breakthrough. As for perfect formations; Real Madrid’s 4-3-3 is fantastic but how good would it be without the world’s two most expensive players at their best? If a goldmine of natural wing-backs was suddenly discovered, would Martinez’s 3-4-3 be the closest we’ve come to perfection? Or maybe, with Atletico’s incredible 2013-14 season, 4-4-2 was the best system all along. That's the beauty of football: there's no right answer.

An obituary for hope: the Ashley regime ruins Ben Arfa

Four days removed, I can finally summon the words to discuss Hatem Ben Arfa’s loan move to Hull City. It just doesn’t look right. As someone who has campaigned passionately for Team Ben Arfa, Monday night’s news absolutely killed me. I’m heartbroken. It’s destroyed the soul of Newcastle United fans because our club has been pronounced dead. Personally, I’ve had enough of football, I can’t take it anymore. I love it and hate it in equal measures. But when you spend your entire time immersed in football, it’s impossible to achieve escapism. It might threaten my journalism career to proceed with this cathartic act, but it’s time to speak from my heart – if it can be taped back together. The aim? To finally rid the club I love of the poisonous Alan Pardew.

What is the point of this sport, when a talent like Ben Arfa goes and a conman like Pardew stays? Segregated for daring to have talent, the Frenchman was banished to the reserves after speaking out. At half time in last season’s miserable 0-4 defeat to Manchester United – amongst the club’s record-breaking six-game losing streak – Pardew allegedly asked if any player wanted to speak out. Ben Arfa did, criticising the tactics that were about to see the team lose four consecutive home games for the first time since 1977 – all without scoring. Pardew’s ego never forgave Ben Arfa for this, with the fans favourite only making one more appearance for the club. “It is absolutely abnormal that he is not treated with the same conditions as his team mates”, Ben Arfa’s lawyer told Foot Mercato last weekend. “If this continues after the transfer window, we will look to take action through the FA. This situation cannot go on forever.” Unfortunately, the conclusion came shortly after.

Myths

The mercurial Frenchman possesses all the talent in the world and often showed it for the Magpies when called upon, but a smear campaign has warped fans’ minds. The club accused Ben Arfa of reporting to pre-season overweight, whilst still employing Rob Elliot as back-up goalkeeper. In truth, he just added muscle to his normally slim frame. Rumours of him causing dressing room disruption looked very strange once social media photos emerged of Hatem smiling and being normal alongside team mates. His immaturity from the past shouldn’t be brought up when there’s no specific example of this alleged ‘trouble’ on Tyneside. It’s just propaganda. Besides, I wouldn’t want to be labelled unprofessional by a manager who head butted David Meyler, pushed a linesman and verbally abused Manuel Pellegrini!

On the pitch, claims of inconsistency couldn’t be further from the truth. In 86 appearances, he scored 14 goals and assisted 18 – impressive statistics, especially when his team mates often deployed the ‘give ball to Hatem and stop running’ attitude. They’re even more impressive now, as Newcastle struggle for creativity and goals without him. Pardew became frustrated that Ben Arfa rarely tracked back, when most managers would realise the talent they owned and let the other ten men defend. He unanimously prefers commitment and graft over skill and ability, which is why he prefers Yoan Gouffran’s backwards running and sideways passing. He even favours Gabriel Obertan!

Pardew’s favoured tactics involve floating all set pieces to the unproductive Mike Williamson, playing strikers on the wing and the weekly 60^th-minute left-back switch. He likes a brand of hoofball, bypassing talented midfielders who are often too short to win headers. Yet, after four years in the job, Pardew still hasn’t imposed a set shape or style to his team. There are no strengths. It’s not like there’ve been mass player sales like at Southampton, either. Yet, according to The Guardian, he instructed the club to “do whatever it takes” to get rid of their most creative, inspirational player.

Stats and excuses

Ben Arfa is a nod to those majestic players who captured our imaginations as kids. His scintillating technique instils a visible fear factor in opponents and he’s used this to drag Newcastle to victories. As a child, I didn’t idolise defensive wingers or adorn replica shirts with those whose work rate was their strength. It’s not like the defensive focus even works! Kevin Keegan would shake his head in disbelief at Pardew’s attitude. He’s the man who played Hayden Mullins over Javier Mascherano each week, the man who has overseen 14 defeats in 22 league games this year and the man who has blamed sovereign states, social media and science for past defeats. When losing at half time, Newcastle have never went on to win during Pardew’s reign. This summer, he said he’s aiming for a total of 48 points – one fewer than last season’s 49!

Taylor & Besty recently tweeted: “He’s a failed League 1 manager, a charlatan, a liar and an egomaniac. He’s also a liability both tactically and personally.” Insight into Pardew the man was given by Steve Bacon, West Ham’s photographer. Whilst ordering meals at a pre-match hotel, Pardew said to fitness coach Tony Strudwick: “That sounds good. Tell you what; if yours is better than mine when it turns up, I’m having that.” Upon arrival, he swapped their plates and, when confronted about stealing someone else’s dinner, boasted: “When you’re the King, you can do anything.”

He’s not one of us. Some fans continue to defend the indefensible and claim he’s been left in a tough situation by Mike Ashley, which completely ignores the fact that he’s part of the regime. Ashley brought Pardew out of unemployment and was repaid with the most loyal ‘yes man’ he’ll ever have. They’re together on the front line and a mass brainwashing has taken place. By continuing to buy tickets and buy the bullshit, you’re part of the problem – it’s not loyalty. Stand up for yourselves – how come those who hounded Sam Allardyce out after eight months now accept this mediocrity?

Fan split

Growing up, I was so proud to be part of the Toon Army – we were always passionate, united and intelligent. We didn’t accept frauds, liars or master manipulators at our club. It’s truly heartbreaking to see Pardew still here, having an easy ride. Some fans even like him! That would never have happened before. Seeing people believe the propaganda crushes me. That’s why I stopped going to games – I just can’t sit amongst these people. The ones who chant ‘E-I-E-I-E-I-O, Pardew is our King’ whilst booing the Ben Arfa chants and ‘HOPE’ banners are disgusting. I can’t stand them spreading the regime’s message. Yet they’re Newcastle too and it’s hard to accept.

The good news is that, in the few days since Ben Arfa and Mapou Yanga-Mbiwa were ridiculously deemed surplus, the tide seems to finally be turning. It was the final straw for many, with a full-on fans vs. club war set to take place. However, Mike Ashley is not a normal man who would be swayed by public unrest. He loves being hated and relishes winding the fans up (as Joe Kinnear, Wonga and renaming the stadium proved), so it’s hard to get to him. Stop giving the club money only enables other fans to take up that space. We just have to pray that Ashley turns his attention to buying out poor Glasgow Rangers and that he’ll get bored of us. A lot of disillusioned fans – like me- now want Newcastle to lose games, with the theory that Ashley will only contemplate getting rid of his loyal criticism-deflecting buffer if the club’s Premier League status is in severe danger. It’s a horrible situation.

Yet Ashley can have a huge share in both Rangers and Newcastle simultaneously, so finding a buyer to rescue our club is the toughest obstacle. He’d have huge demands on top of the price. By purchasing Ibrox’s naming rights and wanting Sports Direct splashed all over their shirts, it hints that he’d insist on similar from prospective buyers. So, if the long-term plan won’t progress, let’s concentrate on the short-term plan – ousting Pardew.

Newcastle are in serious danger of relegation. We can’t score, can’t defend, there’s no squad depth and there’s unrest throughout the club and fanbase. The main ingredients are there and, whilst there’s a lot of dross in this season’s Premier League, we’re now part of that dross. Ambition and glory are still dirty words around the club, with Finance Director John Irving admitting: “The cup competitions are not a priority for the club.” It is all about the balance sheet, with eye-watering amounts of TV money left untouched because, hey, remember Portsmouth?

What now?

In Hatem Ben Arfa, we’ve lost an idol who genuinely loved this city and club. By arranging a ‘meet and greet’ with fans and writing an open letter on Wednesday, we’ve clearly touched his heart, which has been reciprocated. But it’s best to accept he won’t be returning, despite the loan. Maybe Pardew goes, leading to a new Ben Arfa deal next summer, but Ashley wouldn’t sanction this. In the meantime, we have to recover from his departure and make life impossible for the regime. It’s time to be clever with our protests and hit Ashley where it hurts. The first step – rid the club of poisonous Pardew. Let’s become one as a fan base and put the ‘United’ back into Newcastle United.

Here’s a fantastic but emotional video of Ben Arfa’s time on Tyneside, courtesy of supersewelly: